Software Everywhere — David Beers on Mobile Computing

Michael Vakulenko at VisionMobile says:

Despite high hopes, Palm and its WebOS software has (sic) barely made a difference in the growing smartphone market. According to Canalys, Palm shares 3 percent of smartphone market with Linux and proprietary platforms in the “Other” category. Clearly, it is not enough today to make an excellent device powered by modern operating system based on Linux and Web technologies.

Of course if you read the Canalys report you could as easily have used the same screwy logic to say:

Despite high hopes, Google and it's Android software has (sic) barely made a difference in the growing smartphone market. Hype notwithstanding, according to Canalys, Android shares only 3 percent of the smartphone market. Clearly, it is not enough today to make an excellent, modern operating system based on Linux.

These analysts always make me chuckle the way they start with a conclusion they believe to be true (usually just an echo of the rest of the tech media) and then filter the facts as needed to support it.

Maybe I should give it a try using the latest data from AdMob, which ranks all mobile handsets, not just smartphones:

Despite high hopes, BlackBerry has barely made a difference in the new smartphone market, having been displaced from AdMob's top five list by Apple, Android and, most remarkably, Palm. Palm's dethronement of the RIM "juggernaut" in just a few months on the market—despite the Pre's initial availability on just a single declining US carrier—shows that it is not enough today to make great hardware and software integrated with bulletproof messaging services. As Palm releases more webOS products on more carriers in the coming months expect it's innovative Web 3.0 application model to quickly take the wind out of the sails of the Android and Apple platforms which seemed indomitable only a few months ago.

There. Can I have Roger McNamee's job now? :-)

All joking aside, after using a Pre pretty regularly for the last month or so and working a bit with the SDK I do think they've got a helluva dog in the fight. It's kind of ironic, but despite my passion for mobile computing I'm not a guy who can say he's ever really fallen for a mobile handset. I like the idea of smartphones, but mostly they frustrate me in the ways they fall short of their potential, especially in terms of the user interface. I use a LOT of handsets on all the platforms in my work, but when I pick up the Pre I marvel at how much of the pain I experience on other phones simply isn't there. It's not perfect for sure, but it's an incredibly good start, in my opinion. I'm also hopeful that Palm is on a better track with their developer program than Google and Apple. Dion Almaer and Ben Galbraith from Mozilla and Ajaxian were an inspired choice to lead Developer Relations and I enjoyed immensely their sessions at the Sprint Open Developer conference. In all, I can't disagree with the analysts who identify Palm as an underdog, but I find myself rooting for them as enthusiastically as ever.

Update: Forgot to mention that if you want to understand what these smartphone market share reports do and don't mean, make sure you've read this (Mike Mace, Mobile Opportunity).

It seems that congratulations are in order to Palm for recognizing that its future depends on being more open to developers than the competition. I haven't had time yet to delve into the details of the new developer program that they announced this week, but the tech media seems to be impressed.

Rethink Wireless says that the new developer program terms "make Google's look tightly closed by comparison."

Software creators will be able to distribute applications on the web and will only have to submit to a review process if they want their software to be made available through the App Catalog, said the vendor, stealing some of the open web high ground from Google.

Palm recently hired Dion Almaer and Ben Galbraith of Ajaxian fame to head up their developer relations team. These guys know a thing or two about the power of openness and this week's announcement seems to show it.

Quick thoughts on webOS:

• Was I right or was I right about the JavaScript presentation layer running over Java middleware? I love this architecture. If/when Palm enables developers to write services in the device middleware the webOS ecosystem will really take off.
• By hitching its wagon to the rising HTML 5 star Palm is going to have less trouble supporting gaming and high-performance graphics than many expect.
• I still haven't bought a Pre because the Sprint coverage near my house is so spotty. Not to worry: I put the house on the market :-)
• I'm more certain than ever that webOS will soon have a desktop story to tell. I don't have the usual evidence to offer for this, just feel the stars aligning that way.
• I'd have a lot more to say about this platform were it not for a legal problem than I cannot discuss. I can't even develop on webOS right now, which is supremely frustrating to me.